Research Disclaimer

1. A model, not an oracle, and never an adviser

Every probability in Tenebra is an estimate produced by statistical models and artificial intelligence working on public information. Estimates can be wrong; some certainly are. Tenebra publishes its full record openly so that its errors are visible rather than hidden.

Nothing in Tenebra is investment advice, financial advice, a trading signal, a recommendation, a rating, a valuation, research within the meaning of financial regulation, an offer or a solicitation. Penumbreal is not a licensed investment firm, adviser, broker or research provider and is not supervised by the AFM, DNB or any financial regulator anywhere. Nothing here is legal, tax, accounting, insurance, security, medical or political advice either.

2. How to read a probability

A probability is a statement about uncertainty, not a forecast that an event will or will not happen. An estimate of 20% means the event is expected to occur roughly one time in five when the model is well calibrated; when it occurs, that is not by itself evidence that the estimate was wrong. Credible intervals describe the model's own uncertainty about its estimate, not the range of possible outcomes. Estimates move as evidence arrives and are refreshed on a schedule; the number you see may be hours or days old and may already have changed.

3. The record and past performance

The public record reports how past estimates were graded. It is small, it grows slowly, it contains hypotheses of very different kinds, and a good score on it is not a guarantee of future calibration. Price-threshold hypotheses are graded automatically against third-party market data and may be affected by errors in that data; other hypotheses are graded against public reporting by the operator's judgment, which can also err. Past calibration is not a guarantee of future results.

4. AI-generated content

Arguments, digests, answers from the Desk, scenario descriptions, suggested hypotheses and reports are written in part by large language models. Such text may contain errors, fabricated details, misread sources, outdated facts or bias, and it is shown to you without prior human review. The Desk is designed so that every number it states comes from the engine, but its prose can still be wrong. Verify anything you intend to rely on.

5. Third-party data

News, prices, volumes, prediction-market odds and reference statistics come from third parties and public sources. They may be delayed, incomplete, inaccurate, manipulated or withdrawn, and their appearance in Tenebra is not verification or endorsement. Prediction-market prices in particular can be thin, volatile and unrepresentative.

6. The Shadow Book

The Shadow Book is a paper simulation of a virtual bankroll marked against public prediction-market prices, kept to measure calibration. No real money is held or traded, no fees, slippage, liquidity limits, taxes or counterparty risks are modelled, and its results do not represent, predict or evidence real trading performance. It is not a recommendation to take any position on any venue. Penumbreal is not affiliated with Polymarket or any other venue.

7. Your Book

Your Book relates tracked hypotheses to ticker symbols you have chosen to follow. It does not know your holdings, exposure, leverage, currency, horizon or risk tolerance, and its figures are not a valuation, risk assessment or advice about any real position. Any figure labelled "book risk" is a statistic about the tracked hypotheses only.

8. Sensitive subject matter

Tenebra covers conflict, elections, sanctions, public health and other sensitive events. Estimates about such events are analytical statements about probability, not opinions, endorsements, predictions of harm, or statements about any person, group or government. Tenebra takes no political position.

9. Your responsibility

Any decision you make, financial or otherwise, is yours alone and at your own risk. Before acting on anything you read here, consult a licensed professional who knows your circumstances. By using Tenebra you accept that Penumbreal is not liable for decisions made in reliance on it, as set out in the Terms of Service.

10. No guarantee of availability

Estimates, alerts, notifications and refreshes may be delayed, missed or unavailable. Do not rely on Tenebra for time-critical decisions or as your only source of information about any event.